North Korea: At It Again!

Well, North Korea is at it again! Recently announced that they will resume nuclear bomb tests, and ballistic missile tests. All because the recent UN declaration (Note: not a resolution) decried the Norths recent missile launch. Sorry! Of course, "satellite" launch. The only way it will stop these acts will be if the UN issues an apology for the recent declaration, and withdraws ALL sanctions.

Are the North really THAT dumb!

Up until now, they have had a fairly liberal government in South Korea which persued a "sunshine" policy of engagement. In other words, they just gave the North stuff, without getting a great deal back. 

And for the North it worked well. Rattle the saber, and extract more concessions such as oil, food, trade, building a nuclear power plant, etc. 

Problem is, now, just to the south, the government has changed to a more conservative government which has scrapped the Sunshine policy, by declaring that it is effectively going to be give and take. If the North wants stuff, they have to give something back. Not surprisingly, the North is not happy over that, and began rattling the saber harder.

Unfortunately, this did not get the desired reaction, it drove the South to actively seek to join the US led anti-weapons-of-mass-destruction initiative. This initiative is between nations who will actively seek to shut down the trade in materials linked to WMD, by boarding vessels anywhere near their territory to search it.

North Korea reacted by announcing that such a move would be tantamount to an act of war.

Until now, North Koreas policy has been saber rattling. Rattle the saber, extract some concessions, make some vague promises, and wait until the next opportunity rolls around where you can declare something as an act of war, and begin the cycle again.

Problem is, the US, Japan and South Korea have become more and more reluctant to give in to Pyongyangs posturing. Every time the North does, it gives more fuel to the pessimists, and conservatives. Now, there is enough strength behind these groups (South Koreas conservative government, for one) to begin to ask for something back from North Korea. The North said it would decomission its reactor. Not surprisingly, the US asked that there be independant verification. Given the North's track record for lying, its not really an unreasonable request, and one any normal nation would accede to. Unfortunately, the North believes that since they are the centre of the universe, everyone should believe them, and took umbrage at the American stance.

This is where everything began.

Today, the North has tried to rattle the saber as hard as it can to try to get everyone back to the table, but on THEIR terms. I dont think they realise how far off they are. The UN is supposed to be the supreme worldwide club. The chances of them withdrawing the statement is vanishingly small. And it is deeply unlikely that the Security Council will vote for a withdrawal of sanctions. The US, UK, and France will veto such a move. Whilst China may vote for it, there is no given, and Russias position would be described as ambivalent at best.

If the North were to carry on down this path, I really hope that if they where to carry out such acts, that the rest of the world grows a set, and really tightens up on the North. I am not advocating war, but the North has to realise that they need the world, more than the world needs the DPRK.

Proud patriotic songs of Kim Jong Who?

Well. North Korea did it! They have joined the exclusive club of space-faring nations! Or, did they?

The United Nations have put in place a whole bunch of santions (fat lot of good they have done!) designed to halt North Koreas nuclear ambitions. Both in terms of developing a bomb (that worked well!) and the means to deliver it. So far, they can reach the South, large parts of China, and worringly for me, all of Japan.

As it stands, the new Taepodong 2 has a calculated range of 6,000km. Even though the recent test was about half of that. Since they have doubled its range in a few years, 6,000km is not far off. Putting Alaska and Singapore within Range, Australia and Moscow are uncomfortably close to its limits, and Europe will be in range with the Taepodong 3.

Should we be getting all stressed out over a "satellite launch?" Quite frankly, yes. It does not take much imagination to switch a satellite launcher into a cruise missile. They are, in effect, one and the same. The Japanese are trying to sweep the ocean to pull out any scraps they can, to ty to find out what the North actually launched. The North said that if the Japanese pull any parts of its missile out of the ocean, it would be a declaration of war. Having said that, the North has hardly any navy so is not a massive threat to the Japanese islands. The Japanese have moved sea and land based anti-missile batteries to cover Japan (though it is unlikely they will tackle 100% of everything launched). Also, the North calls everything a declaration of war. Its getting old.

Should North Korea be punished? I dont know. What we need is for China to stop mucking around and get serious. With China in its corner, Kim is happy to act like a schoolyard bully that thinks hes "all that." I can see why China wants North Korea to remain. They dont care about the suffering of the people. China only pays lip service to human rights. However, should North Korea fall (and its more likely to collapse under the financial weight of its army, than the South) and re-join South Korea, China will have an uncomfortable situation with a proudly democratic nation, fiercely independant, and enjoying one helluva lifestyle! Hong Kong was not such an issue for China. It was, after all, a colony. Not a separate nation. So, all that happened to Hong Kong was that it switched from one owner to another. With a united Korea just next door, one that is less likely to be bullied by China, and not in their pocket, it gets harder for China. The Chinese like to tell its people that China's government offers the best life for its people. With Korea just over a bridge, and so visible, it spells trouble!

Is Japan right to be so worried? Well, yes. Unlike the UK, all the Japanese home islands are in range of the missiles that the Korean DPR possesses. Whilst most of them are pointed at the South, a good chunk of them will be aimed at Tokyo. A missile launched from the North will take less than 10 minutes to strike the north of Japan. Leaving the southern cities much closer.

Another major problem is WHICH North Korea do you deal with? With Hitlers Germany it was "easier." After all, Hitler was a raging megalomaniac, with psycotic tendencies all the time. With North Korea, sometimes you get the crazies, other times, they can be quite helpful. Almost as if the entire nation is bipolar.

I am sure that it will work itself out. Maybe sometime this century. I know the North is not so stupid to launch something at Japan, as the North would be on the recieving end of a helluva kicking. Unfortunately, it is not something I can be 100% about.

Living next to the worlds biggest nuclear power plant has never felt so uncomfortable.

Its all going squirrelly!

Well, it has proven to be an interesting week to be a fan of Hockey in the UK!

First, there was the rumour, backed by the Phoenix office, of a meeting held between 6 of the surviving 9 EIHL clubs, to which Manchester, Edinburgh, and Newcastle where not invited.

Apparently, at the meeting, the discussion revolved around concerns raised by the other 3. Running from wage cap and import issues. However, rather than trying to cut the wage cap to help the smaller clubs remain competitive, and cutting imports to help promote the development of GB players, the other clubs decided that the sensible option was to RAISE the cap, and RAISE the number of imports! This flies in the face of a previous meeting held in November where the clubs agreed to cut the number of imports to 8. With 1 club dissenting. Wonder who...

We now have a situation with a "new" league structure being advocated by the "Big 6" where the wage cap is increased, the number of imports is increased, and to take part, it will cost you £10,000 bond to get in.

All this really smacks of the "Big 6" trying to force the smaller clubs out. Raise entry to the point where they know the smaller clubs cannot commit, and they are gone. Why they want to do this? I really dont know. Maybe to keep more of the pot for themselves. I know Edinburgh dont take too many fans on away trips, whilst for Nottingham games against Sheffield are a cash cow, but if Nottingham fans are guaranteed to see Sheffield a couple of times a month, then its going to get very boring, very quickly!

This got very interesting very quickly, until Friday...
http://edinburgh-capitals.com/news/detail.php?id=978
http://www.manchesterphoenix.co.uk/news/s/1487_phoenix_prepared_to_fight_for_0910_league_entry

Neil came out and painted a dark picture of the inner workings of the EIHL. Wage cap breaches going unpunished, and other dodgy goings-on. Scott Neil of Edinburgh didnt just paint an ungly picture, he ripped the curtain away and let the world take a damn good look!

Some of the Big 6 openly admitting to breaching the wage cap (no surprises who), and a lack of punishment. Clubs dipping into league funding without any consultation whatsoever. Generally, a high degree of corruptness all round.

Why would Neil and Scott do this? Going in to a meeting on Monday fighting for league survival?

For my money, its simple. Manchester, Newcastle, and Edinburgh do not have the power to make the others chnge their mind. After all, its 3 to 6 votes. However, with the threat of a VERY public airing of dirty linen from a couple of guys who have built their reputations on honesty and integrity, it may help persuade Hull and Cardiff to wobble. Bringing the voting round to 5-4. Another hope is that such a public shaming will concentrate minds a little and focus on the fact that a 6 team league really is unworkable in the long term.

Will all this work? Unlikely. This is a high risk strategy, and given those that run the league, they are just as capable of feeling pushed into a corner, and lashing back. Forcing Manchester and the others out much faster.

Will I be sad? Given the way the EIHL has worked, and the huge amount of corruption within. No. If the Phoenix are there next year, I can only hope Neil has managed to swing all sorts of concessions out of them to make it a viable league for the likes of the Phoenix. Such as a CHANCE of winning. I dont mind the Phoenix not winning the league. But it is nice to dream. The Big 4 just walk off every year!

As is more likely, the Phoenix will have to drop down to either the EPL, or a revamped Northern League. For one, I wont be too sad. At least the hockey will be a lot more honest!

And as I suspect, we will be in a position of strength when The Big 6 come calling to be let in when their dreams of European glory end in abject failure and the EIHL2/ISL3 collapses as it surely will.