North Korea: At It Again!

Well, North Korea is at it again! Recently announced that they will resume nuclear bomb tests, and ballistic missile tests. All because the recent UN declaration (Note: not a resolution) decried the Norths recent missile launch. Sorry! Of course, "satellite" launch. The only way it will stop these acts will be if the UN issues an apology for the recent declaration, and withdraws ALL sanctions.

Are the North really THAT dumb!

Up until now, they have had a fairly liberal government in South Korea which persued a "sunshine" policy of engagement. In other words, they just gave the North stuff, without getting a great deal back. 

And for the North it worked well. Rattle the saber, and extract more concessions such as oil, food, trade, building a nuclear power plant, etc. 

Problem is, now, just to the south, the government has changed to a more conservative government which has scrapped the Sunshine policy, by declaring that it is effectively going to be give and take. If the North wants stuff, they have to give something back. Not surprisingly, the North is not happy over that, and began rattling the saber harder.

Unfortunately, this did not get the desired reaction, it drove the South to actively seek to join the US led anti-weapons-of-mass-destruction initiative. This initiative is between nations who will actively seek to shut down the trade in materials linked to WMD, by boarding vessels anywhere near their territory to search it.

North Korea reacted by announcing that such a move would be tantamount to an act of war.

Until now, North Koreas policy has been saber rattling. Rattle the saber, extract some concessions, make some vague promises, and wait until the next opportunity rolls around where you can declare something as an act of war, and begin the cycle again.

Problem is, the US, Japan and South Korea have become more and more reluctant to give in to Pyongyangs posturing. Every time the North does, it gives more fuel to the pessimists, and conservatives. Now, there is enough strength behind these groups (South Koreas conservative government, for one) to begin to ask for something back from North Korea. The North said it would decomission its reactor. Not surprisingly, the US asked that there be independant verification. Given the North's track record for lying, its not really an unreasonable request, and one any normal nation would accede to. Unfortunately, the North believes that since they are the centre of the universe, everyone should believe them, and took umbrage at the American stance.

This is where everything began.

Today, the North has tried to rattle the saber as hard as it can to try to get everyone back to the table, but on THEIR terms. I dont think they realise how far off they are. The UN is supposed to be the supreme worldwide club. The chances of them withdrawing the statement is vanishingly small. And it is deeply unlikely that the Security Council will vote for a withdrawal of sanctions. The US, UK, and France will veto such a move. Whilst China may vote for it, there is no given, and Russias position would be described as ambivalent at best.

If the North were to carry on down this path, I really hope that if they where to carry out such acts, that the rest of the world grows a set, and really tightens up on the North. I am not advocating war, but the North has to realise that they need the world, more than the world needs the DPRK.